Why overfolding is so important


The hand


Preflop cold 4b range:

BB is playing 27/22 3b 12% his BB cold4b% is 6% overall, its likely in he will have a wider range than 6% in bu-sb-bb spot. Lets say his cold 4b range is this spot it 8%



I think its likely he will cb this flop with a high frequency, lets say he cbets 100% of his range for this size.



Overall I dont expect people to like to bluff on this turn. Our flop call range exist a lot of Ax.


-He will shove 25% of the time his hands like KQ and 9T when on the turn

-He will shove AQ 80% of the time when on the turn


So if this assumptions are true we have to fold AQ in this spot. Which is a verry exploitable fold but probably vs most regs the best play.

What is the differents in EV between folding and checking?

Ev Call

145 pot and he shoves 130






My first thought was, it looks very close. But even vs this agro preflop reg the EV differents is big. Folding those kind of hands will save you/me a lot of money. If this situation happens once a day we will safe almost 1k per month!