Why overfolding is so important

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The hand

http://www.pokerhand.org/?6811847

Preflop cold 4b range:

BB is playing 27/22 3b 12% his BB cold4b% is 6% overall, its likely in he will have a wider range than 6% in bu-sb-bb spot. Lets say his cold 4b range is this spot it 8%

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Flop

I think its likely he will cb this flop with a high frequency, lets say he cbets 100% of his range for this size.

 

Turn

Overall I dont expect people to like to bluff on this turn. Our flop call range exist a lot of Ax.

Assumptions:

-He will shove 25% of the time his hands like KQ and 9T when on the turn

-He will shove AQ 80% of the time when on the turn

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So if this assumptions are true we have to fold AQ in this spot. Which is a verry exploitable fold but probably vs most regs the best play.

What is the differents in EV between folding and checking?

Ev Call

145 pot and he shoves 130

0.24*145+130=+66

0.76*-130=-99

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€-33

Conclusion:

My first thought was, it looks very close. But even vs this agro preflop reg the EV differents is big. Folding those kind of hands will save you/me a lot of money. If this situation happens once a day we will safe almost 1k per month!